Pamsika wapadziko lonse lapansi, kugawikana kwa magwiridwe antchito kungayembekezeredwe - mu gawo la mapaipi ndi zowongolera iyi ndiye mutu wofunikira.Zowonadi, magwiridwe antchito amagawo ang'onoang'ono amasiyana osati ndi geography ndi gawo la msika komanso kuya kwamadzi, zomangira komanso momwe chilengedwe chikuyendera.Chitsanzo chachikulu cha zochitika izi chikuwonetsedwa ndi kukula kwa msika komwe kumayembekezeredwa ndi dera.Zowonadi, pomwe misika yamadzi osaya ya North Sea ndi Gulf of Mexico (GoM) ikucheperachepera pang'onopang'ono, madera aku South East Asia, Brazil ndi Africa akuchulukirachulukira.Komabe, kuzungulira kwakanthawi kochepaku kukuyembekezekanso kuwonetsa kukula kwakukulu m'magawo akumalire a madzi akuya ku Norway, UK West of Shetland ndi Lower Tertiary Trend ku Gulf of Mexico, ndikuyenda mozama, kovutirapo komanso kumtunda kwamadzi akumidzi. zigawo izi.Mu ndemanga iyi, a Luke Davis ndi Gregory Brown a Infield Systems amafotokoza za momwe msika wapaipi ndi kuwongolera ukuyendera komanso zomwe oyang'anira makampani angayembekezere pa msika wosinthika.
Market Outlook
Pazaka zisanu zikubwerazi Infield Systems ikuneneratu za njira zoyendetsera mapaipi ndi njira zowongolera kuyandikira pafupi ndi $270bn, zomwe zikufanana ndi pafupifupi 80,000km ya mizere yomwe 56,000km idzakhala mapaipi ndipo 24,000km idzakhala mizere yowongolera.Kuphatikiza magawo awiriwa akuyembekezeka kuwona kukula kwakukulu pambuyo pa kutsika kwakukulu pakati pa kukwera koyambirira kwa 2008 ndi kutsika kwa 2009 ndi 2010. ntchito pamene misika yomwe ikubwera ikuyamba kuchita bwino kuposa momwe anthu amachitira.
Ngakhale kuti ndalama zomwe zimagwiritsidwa ntchito m'madera okhwima zikuyembekezeka kukweranso posachedwa, kukula kwa nthawi yayitali kumakhala kochepa poyerekeza ndi misika yomwe ikubwera.Zoonadi, zochitika zaposachedwa ku North America, kuphatikizapo kugwa kwa mavuto azachuma, tsoka la Macondo ndi mpikisano wa gasi wa shale wam'mphepete mwa nyanja, aphatikizana kuti achepetse ntchito ya E&A yamadzi osaya ndipo motero kukhazikitsa nsanja ndi mapaipi m'derali.Chithunzi chofananira chachitika ku UK North Sea - ngakhale msika waulesi pano ukuyendetsedwa kwambiri ndi kusintha kwa kayendetsedwe kazachuma m'derali komanso zovuta zopezera ngongole - zomwe zakulitsidwa ndi vuto lalikulu la ngongole ku Eurozone.
Komabe, pomwe madera awiri osaya awa akupumira, Infield Systems ikuyembekeza kukula kwakukulu m'misika yomwe ikubwera ya North Western Australia, East Africa ndi madera ena a Asia (kuphatikiza zochitika zamadzi akuya ku South China Sea ndi mabeseni aku Krishna-Godavari ku India) pomwe olimba m'madzi akuya ku West Africa, Gulf of Mexico ndi Brazil akuyenera kupitiliza kupititsa patsogolo msika kwanthawi yayitali.
Kusuntha mapiri - kukula kwa mizere ya thunthu
Pomwe njira yoyika madzi akuya kwambiri, motero mizere yolumikizana ndi SURF, ipitilizabe kukopa chidwi chamakampani, kuyimitsidwa kwamadzi osaya kukuyembekezeka kusungitsa gawo lalikulu pamsika wamtsogolo.Zowonadi, pafupifupi magawo awiri mwa atatu a ndalama zomwe zikugwiritsidwa ntchito zikuyembekezeka kulunjika ku chitukuko cha madzi ochepera 500 metres m'nyengo ya 2015. Momwemo, kukhazikitsa mapaipi wamba kudzakhala gawo lalikulu lazinthu zomwe zikufunika kupita patsogolo - gawo lalikulu. zomwe zikuyembekezeredwa kuti zidzayendetsedwa ndi madzi osaya aku Asia.
Mizere yamadzi osaya komanso mizere yotumizira kunja idzakhala gawo lalikulu pamsika wa mapaipi pazaka zisanu zikubwerazi popeza gawo ili likuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kukula kwambiri.Ntchito za gawoli zakhala zikuyendetsedwa ndi kukakamizidwa kwa maboma ndi maboma am'madera kuti alimbikitse chitetezo champhamvu pogwiritsa ntchito mitundu yosiyanasiyana yamagetsi amagetsi.Maukonde akulu amapaipiwa nthawi zambiri amadalira kwambiri ubale wapadziko lonse lapansi komanso momwe chuma chikuyendera, motero amatha kuchedwetsedwa ndikuwunikidwanso poyerekeza ndi gawo lina lililonse la msika.
Europe ili ndi gawo lalikulu kwambiri pamsika wamsika wakunja ndi trunk line ndi 42% ya makilomita okhazikika padziko lonse lapansi komanso 38% ya ndalama zomwe zidzagwiritsidwe ntchito pofika chaka cha 2015. Ndi mbiri yayikulu komanso mapulojekiti ovuta pokonzekera ndi kumanga, makamaka Nord. Stream, European trunk and export line expenditure ikuyembekezeka kufika US$21,000m pa nthawi ya 2011-2015.
Choyamba chinalengezedwa mu 2001, polojekiti ya Nord Stream imagwirizanitsa Vyborg ku Russia ndi Greifswald ku Germany.Mzerewu ndiye payipi wautali kwambiri wapansi pa nyanja padziko lonse lapansi ndipo kutalika kwake ndi 1,224km.Pulojekiti ya Nord Stream yaphatikiza makontrakitala ambiri kuphatikiza Royal Boskalis Westminster, Tideway, Sumitomo, Saipem, Allseas, Technip ndi Snamprogetti pakati pa ena omwe akugwira ntchito m'magulu omwe akuphatikiza Gazprom, GDF Suez, Wintershall, Gasunie ndi E.ON Ruhrgas.Mu Novembala 2011 idalengezedwa ndi Consortium kuti mizere iwiri yoyamba idalumikizidwa ndi gridi yamafuta aku Europe.Pomaliza, ntchito yayikulu yamapaipi amapasa ikuyembekezeka kupereka msika waku Europe womwe ukusowa mphamvu ndi 55 BCM yamafuta (ofanana ndi 18% ya 2010 yomwe imagwiritsidwa ntchito kumpoto chakumadzulo kwa Europe) pachaka pazaka 50 zikubwerazi.Nord Stream pambali, ndalama pamsika wamtengo wapatali ndi katundu wotumiza kunja zikuyembekezeka kukwera kwambiri ku Asia konse, kukwera kuchokera ku US $ 4,000m m'mbiri ya 2006-2010 mpaka pafupifupi US $ 6,800m kupita patsogolo mpaka 2015. zikuwonetsa kukula komwe kukuyembekezeredwa kwa kufunikira kwa mphamvu ku Asia konse.
Nord Stream imaphatikiza zovuta zamachitidwe, ndale ndi uinjiniya zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi chitukuko chachikulu cha mizere.Zowonadi, kupitilira zovuta zaukadaulo zomwe zimagwirizanitsidwa ndi mapaipi awiri a 1,224km, bungwe lachitukuko lidapatsidwa ntchito yoyang'anira zovuta zandale zoyendetsa mzere kudera la Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark ndi Germany kuphatikiza pakukwaniritsa zofuna za mayiko okhudzidwa a Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia ndi Poland.Zinatenga pafupifupi zaka zisanu ndi zinayi kuti ntchitoyi ivomerezedwe ndipo italandiridwa mu February 2010, ntchitoyo inayamba mofulumira mu April chaka chomwecho.Pipelay ya Nord Stream ikuyenera kumalizidwa mu Q3 2012 ndikuyimitsidwa kwa mzere wachiwiri ndikuthetsa imodzi mwa nkhani zokhazikika pakupanga zomangamanga zotumiza kunja.Mapaipi a Trans ASEAN ndi pulojekiti yotheka yomwe ingayende kudutsa ku Asia ndipo motero kukulitsa madera olemera a hydrocarbon ku South East Asia kumadera olemera kwambiri.
Ngakhale kuti kuchuluka kwa zochitikazi kukulimbikitsani kuti izi sizikuyenda nthawi yayitali - koma zikuwonetsa kuzungulira kwa msika.Kupitilira kukula komwe kwatsala pang'ono kuchitika ku Eastern Europe ntchito Infield Systems imanenanso kuti 2018 ikufunika pang'ono chifukwa zomwe zikuchitikazi ndizovuta kwambiri ndipo zikangochitika Infield Systems ikuwona zochitika zamtsogolo zikuyendetsedwa ndi mizere yolumikizana m'malo mowonjezera mizere yayikulu yotumiza kunja. .
Kukwera pa SURF - Njira yayitali
Motsogozedwa ndi kupanga zoyandama komanso matekinoloje apansi pa nyanja msika wapadziko lonse lapansi wamadzi akuya mwina ndiye gawo lomwe likukula mwachangu pamsika wamafuta ndi gasi wakunyanja.Zowonadi, ndi madera ambiri am'mphepete mwa nyanja komanso osaya omwe akukumana ndi kuchepa kwa kupanga komanso ma NOC omwe akuwongolera madera olemera kwambiri monga Middle East, ogwira ntchito akufunitsitsa kufufuza ndikukhazikitsa nkhokwe kumadera akumalire.Izi zikuchitika osati m'madera atatu a madzi akuya "olemera" - GoM, West Africa ndi Brazil - komanso ku Asia, Australasia ndi Europe.
Pamsika wa SURF njira yomveka bwino komanso yodziwika bwino yolowera m'madzi akuya kwambiri E&P iyenera kutanthauzira kukula kwa msika pazaka khumi zikubwerazi ndi kupitirira apo.Zowonadi, a Infield Systems aneneratu za kukula kwakukulu mu 2012 pamene ma IOC akupitiriza kupanga nkhokwe zawo zakuya zakuya ku West Africa ndi US GoM pamene Petrobras ikupita patsogolo ndi chitukuko cha nkhokwe za mchere usanayambe ku Brazil.
Monga Chithunzi 3 chikuwonetsera pansipa, pali kusiyana kwa msika pakati pa misika yakuya ndi yozama ya SURF.Zowonadi, pomwe msika wamadzi osaya ukuyembekezeka kuwonetsa kukula pang'onopang'ono posachedwa - zomwe zikuchitika kwanthawi yayitali sizowoneka bwino.Komabe, m'madzi akuya, ntchito ndi zamphamvu kwambiri chifukwa ndalama zonse zikuyembekezeka kukwera ndi 56% pakati pa nthawi ya 2006-2010 ndi 2011-2015.
Pomwe kutukuka kwamadzi akuya mosakayikira kwakhala injini yayikulu pamsika wa SURF pazaka khumi zapitazi, kupitilizabe kukula kwa malo akutali amafuta ndi gasi kudzaperekanso mafuta ena pamoto.Makamaka, kulumikizana kwakutali kwa nyanja zam'madzi akuchulukirachulukira monga momwe R&D imagwirira ntchito ndi ogwira ntchito komanso makontrakitala awo akuyamba kupanga mapulojekiti ovutawa kuti athe zotheka.Ntchito zotsogola zaposachedwa zikuphatikiza chitukuko cha Statoil ndi Shell's Ormen Lange ku Norway ndi projekiti ya Total's Laggan ku UK kumadzulo kwa dera la Shetland.Yoyamba ndi yayitali kwambiri padziko lonse lapansi kuchokera kunyanja kupita kunyanja yomwe ikupanga pomwe yomalizayo idzaphwanya mbiriyo ndikutsegula malire a Atlantic kuti apititse patsogolo ntchito za E&P zomwe zidatumizidwa mu 2014.
Chitsanzo china chachikulu cha izi chagona pakukula kwa nyanja ya Jansz m'mphepete mwa nyanja ku Australia.Jansz ndi gawo la polojekiti ya Greater Gorgon, yomwe malinga ndi Chevron idzakhala projekiti yayikulu kwambiri m'mbiri ya Australia.Ntchitoyi ikukhudza chitukuko cha magawo angapo, kuphatikiza Gorgon ndi Jansz, omwe ali ndi ndalama zokwana 40 Tcf.Mtengo wa polojekitiyi ndi US $ 43bn, ndipo kupanga koyamba kwa LNG kukuyembekezeka ku 2014. Malo a Greater Gorgon ali pakati pa 130km ndi 200km kuchokera ku gombe la North West Australia.Mindayo idzalumikizidwa ndi payipi ya 70 km, 38 inch subsea pipeline ndi 180km 38 inch subsea pipeline kupita kumalo a LNG ku Barrow Island.Kuchokera ku Barrow Island payipi ya 90 km idzalumikiza malowa ndi dziko la Australia.
Pomwe zochitika za SURF monga zomwe zili kumadera ovuta kwambiri ku North Sea, Brazil, West Africa, GoM, Asia ndi North West Australia zikuyendetsa msika lero, kulimbikitsa zotsatira za E&A ku East Africa kuyenera kupereka kukula kowonjezereka.Zowonadi, kupambana kwaposachedwa kofufuza monga ku Windjammer, Barquentine ndi Lagosta kwapangitsa kuti ma voliyumu apezeke kupitirira malire (10 Tcf) a malo a LNG.East Africa ndi Mozambique makamaka, tsopano akutchulidwa kuti Australia mawa.Anadarko, wogwira ntchito ku Windjammer, Barquentine ndi Lagosta akufuna kupanga nkhokwezi kudzera m'mphepete mwa nyanja kupita kumalo akunyanja a LNG.Tsopano zaphatikizidwa ndi kupezeka kwa Eni ku Mamba South zomwe zingapangitse kuti 22.5 Tcf projekiti yotheka kumapeto kwa zaka khumi.
Njira yopezera mwayi
Kukula kwa mapaipi, mzere wowongolera komanso, msika wotalikirapo wamsika womwe ukubwerawu ukhoza kudziwika ndi mapulojekiti ozama kwambiri, ovuta komanso akutali.IOC, NOC komanso kutenga nawo mbali pawokha kungathe kupanga msika wachonde wamakontrakitala onse akuluakulu ndi anzawo akumidzi.Kuchulukirachulukira kotereku kotereku kungathe kubweretsa vuto lalikulu pamakampani ogulitsa zinthu pakanthawi yayitali chifukwa chikhumbo chofuna kubweza ndalama kuchokera kwa oyendetsa ntchito chikuposa kuchuluka kwa ngongole zomwe zimafunikira kuti akhazikitse zinthu zofunika kwambiri: mafakitale opanga zinthu, zombo zoyikira ndipo mwina movutikira kwambiri. , akatswiri opanga mapaipi.
Ngakhale kuti mutu wonse wa kukula ndi chizindikiro chabwino cha kubweretsa ndalama zamtsogolo, malingaliro otere ayenera kuchepetsedwa chifukwa cha mantha a chain chain omwe alibe mphamvu zokwanira zoyendetsera kuwonjezeka koteroko.Ndi chikhulupiriro cha Infield Systems kuti kupitilira mwayi wopeza ngongole, kusakhazikika pazandale komanso kulembedwanso kwa malamulo azaumoyo ndi chitetezo, chomwe chikuwopseza kwambiri kukula kwa msika ndikusowa kwa akatswiri aluso pantchito.
Ogwira nawo ntchito m'mafakitale ayenera kudziwa kuti ngakhale nkhani yakukula kofunikira, zochitika zilizonse zamtsogolo m'misika yapaipi ndi zowongolera zimadalira kuchuluka kwazinthu zokwanira komanso kuthekera kokwanira kuti athe kuthandizira ma projekiti osiyanasiyana omwe amakonzedwa ndi ogwira ntchito osiyanasiyana.Ngakhale mantha awa msika umakhala pamphepete mwa njira yosangalatsa kwambiri.Monga oyang'anira makampani a Infield Systems adzayang'anitsitsa m'miyezi ikubwerayi poyembekezera kuchira kwakukulu kwa msika kuchokera kutsika kwa 2009 ndi 2010.
Nthawi yotumiza: Apr-27-2022